Saturday, February 16, 2008

Swap in the Real Estate Market.

The real estate market has hit its lowest point since 2007. This week, President Bush announced a new plan called “project lifeline” to help homeowners who face foreclosures. The program allows qualified homeowners to suspend proceedings for 30 days while providing them with rewriting and refinancing assistance. Still, this is not going to stimulate the market.

I also saw the news on Home Swaps. Just like the financial option swap, the real estate swaps work very similarly. Since houses are not selling, homeowners who need to relocate or move for any other reasons are seeking their own solution. Buyers and sellers can go to Craigslist.org or Onlinehousetrading.com and they can find their dream house online. The good news is no agent is involved. Both buyer and sellers can save up to 7% on commission. Once they decide to visit the house, they are recommended to use the same trading company. In this case, the traders can guarantee the deal goes through for both parties. If the two houses don’t have an equal value, the buyer can get another mortgage to make up the value.

It is not recommended to purchase a house that has a mortgage for more than what it is worth. Swaps are designed to trade between houses that are equal in value. It does sound like a good idea for people who need to relocate. It is still a relatively small market.

http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/104429/I'll-Buy-Your-House-If-You-Buy-Mine;_ylt=AicF5PSQLYNDbUpO0c8GxOVO7sMF

http://promo.realestate.yahoo.com/americas-free-falling-housing-markets.html

Are Universities at Risk?

We have all heard about the incident that occurred on Thursday, February 14th. Another school shooting resulted in the deaths of five students. The killer shot himself as well. I just can’t stop wondering what has happened to the campus security at our schools.

It seems like campus shootings are happening more frequently as time goes by. Last year, there was a shooting at Virginia Tech. Now, it is Northern Illinois University. It is stated that the gunman was a graduate from NIU and had recent classes in the spring of 2007. Till now, the police didn’t know what the motive was. There was no suicide note found to date. From what I understand, the gunman actually hid the guns in a guitar case.

What has happened to America? Why do the campus shootings keep happening? Are students at risk on school campuses? I hope there is a risk management strategy for campus security.

Personally, I don’t think any campus security measures currently in place can secure our schools. There is nobody checking the students before they enter the schools. Anyone can bring a gun into a school. I think all schools should put metal detectors at the school entrance of every school campus. Or, another way to do it is to let students use their campus ID to enter the public facilities on campus. I know we are already doing so in our libraries. However, it is not enough. We need to provide better security for students and faculty against school shootings in the future. People who are not enrolled at a school, or people who have already graduated, should not be able to have the access to the school campus.

I don’t know what else campus security can do to make us feel safer besides installing metal detectors at the entrances of schools. Bottom line, any type of weapon should not be brought to a school campus. Whatever we can do to secure our school campuses should be a top priority.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/niu_shooting

http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?rn=3906861&cl=6460498&ch=4226713&src=news

What do you need to know when you use American Express to pay for your rental car?

As spring break is coming up, you might be planning on taking a trip with your family. Wherever you go, you might need to rent a car when you get to your destination. When you hand the rental agency your American Express card, you will need to be cautious not to put yourself into any risk. Here are a few tips that can help you stay risk-free.

First of all, we are more likely to rent large cars or SUVs when we go to a rental service. People say to themselves, we are on vacation and we deserve a nicer ride. When the car rental agency recommends us to take an upgraded SUV, most people take it. Well, think again. Large SUVs are not covered by American Express at all. If the vehicle is damaged while you are trying to find a parking space in a parking lot, the damage will not be covered at all. Your personal auto insurance doesn’t cover it either. You are liable for the damage that occurs to the SUV. If your rental car is damaged, you might be billed for thousands of dollars from the rental service.

Always talk to your auto insurance agent first to understand your own coverage better. In addition to your personal car insurance coverage, American Express offers secondary protection that generally covers any remaining unpaid damages. However, here are the important exceptions:
Green and Gold cards provide secondary coverage up to $55,000.
Platinum card coverage extends to $75,000.
Large SUVs such as Ford Expedition and GMC Suburban are not covered at all.

You may also be billed thousands of dollars for a fee called loss of vehicle use fee. It means that while the vehicle is being repaired at the shop, you will be billed for the agency’s daily loss. This is not covered by American Express either. The bill will usually be mailed to you months later after your vacation is over.

Third, I will give you some tips that can help stop all the hassle. Always rent a smaller vehicle when possible.

If you can, I would recommend you to purchase the “collision and liability damage wavier fee”. It ranges from $10 to $25 a day. It covers all the accidents that might occur. With this policy, you are not liable for any charges. If you want to stay stress-free, this is the right way to go.

Now, you know more about American Express rental coverage. Hopefully, when you go on your spring break, you will be able to enjoy it and not to worry about any incidents.

www.americanexpress.com

Sunday, February 10, 2008

What do you need to know about the tax rebate plan?

Congress has passed President Bush’s tax cut plan. However, before you can get your rebate check from the IRS, here are a few things that you need to know.

First of all, the tax cut plan applies to the lower-income and middle class tax payers, senior citizens that live off social security, and disabled veterans. In order to be eligible for the rebate, single individual’s income for 2007 must have an adjusted gross income of $75,000 or less. Joint files must have AGI less than $150,000. Singles will get a rebate for as much as $600, and couples will get a rebate up to $1,200. Couples with dependent children, will also receive a rebate of $300 for each child.

The rebate applies differently for individuals whose AGI is greater than $75,000 and couple’s who have a joint AGI greater than $150,000. The tax cut allows a 5% phase-out rate for those high income people. It means that for every dollar that is above the cap, he or she will lose the rebate by 5 cents. Here is another explanation for those people to figure out their tax rebate. Their rebate will be reduced by the amount of income above the cap times 5%. Here is an example, if your AGI is $80,000, your rebate will roughly be:
$600-0.05*($80,000-$75,000) = $350

In order to get the rebate, the first thing you need to do is to file a 1040 or 1040 EZ federal tax return for 2007. If you can file your federal return by April 15th, you can expect your rebate check between May and Early July. Hopefully, by now you can calculate your rebate check before you actually get it.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/02/08/pf/taxes/rebates_what_you_need_to_know/index.htm?postversion=2008020817

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/08/economic.stimulus/index.html?section=cnn_latest

The Presidential Campaign Update

Yesterday, Mitt Romney suspended his presidential campaign. On the republican side, John McCain became the favorite candidate for the Republican Party. Many republicans who supported Mitt Romney are left to wonder about their party’s future.

I am a Mitt Romney supporter myself. He pulled out of the campaign after Super Tuesday’s election, losing 14 of 21 states to John McCain. Personally, I think he quit the campaign just in time. He has spent all the money he raised. It is almost impossible for him to overcome McCain in November. It is a great loss that he had to leave the campaign. However, he has strengthened the Republican Party. Just like Mitt Romney said, he had to stand aside now. His leaving definitely helps strengthen the Republican Party.

John McCain, on the other hand, is referring himself as the conservative republican. There are quite a few principals that he insists on that conflict with my own. The first conflict is that he voted against the tax cut in 2001 and 2003. I don’t believe in higher taxes myself. A reasonable tax portion is ok with me. Especially now, when times are so bad and the economy is going toward a recession. Raising taxes is only going to make things worse. McCain also said that the border security must come first. In addition he didn’t have any strategy about how to bring our troops back. At some point in the past, he even mentioned that the troops will stay overseas for as long as needed. Third, McCain claims that he is a true conservative. There is a lot of criticism regarding him being a true conservative. I don’t agree with his opinion on immigration either.

Well, there is still time to come. Many things can change in the next 8 or 9 months. I don’t know who will be the next president. Fortunately, the public will have enough time to consider the votes.




http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080207/pl_nm/usa_politics_romney_dc_13

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080208/ap_on_el_pr/campaign_next_up

Value at Risk

We talked about value at risk last week. Dr. Grace also posted the formulas about how to calculate value at risk at an x% percentile. I did a little bit more research on value at risk and here is what I have found.

Value at risk is the maximum loss that doesn’t exceed with a given probability defined as a confidence level, over a period of time. VaR is a general tool and has a very broad range of application. However, VaR is most commonly used by security firms such as investment banks. VaR is used to measure the risk of the company’s portfolio assets over a given time period.


VaR is measured using the normal distribution. The actual value is converted by using the Z-value, which is also the standard normal distribution. VaR is very easy to understand and familiarize with. Anyway, there is an advantage of using this measurement. If the measured event is a rare event, it only occurs once a year. In order to use the VaR, a large amount of dates will be required before application. Other events that occur once a century, like a stock market crash, is impossible to value its risk accurately. Hedging probably can reduce the portfolio’s risk.

For many institutions, VaR is a very effective prospective measurement to apply. You can find more detailed calculation on the following websites.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_at_risk

http://www.riskglossary.com/link/value_at_risk.htm